What are the demographic trends that are influencing the proposed map changes?
You may have heard that roughly 60,000 more people are expected to live in the Salem area by 2035. That 60,000 number comes from the
Salem Housing Needs Analysis (HNA), which was completed in late 2014. That study has a lot of information about trends that could impact the type of housing we need to plan for in the Salem area. Regional and local trends are found on pages 20 to 23 of the HNA, and demographic trends are found on pages 24 to 26.
The HNA and the
Salem Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) form the basis of the update to the Comprehensive Plan. In other words, the update needs to accommodate the housing and employment needs in the two studies. For example, we need to ensure that changes to the Comprehensive Plan Map include enough land for multifamily housing to meet our projected deficit identified the HNA.
Can you tell me more about the proposed Neighborhood Hub and Residential 4 (R4) zones?
We have put together overviews of the two proposed new zones. You can find them here:
Neighborhood Hub Zone Overview and
Residential 4 Zone Overview. The information in the two documents describes what is currently envisioned for both zones. The details are subject to change as the Our Salem project progresses. If you have comments or more questions, please contact Eunice Kim at
Is the preferred scenario the same as the Proposed Comprehensive Plan Map?
No. It is different. The preferred scenario is a best guess at what properties could develop or redevelop by 2035 based on the
proposed Comprehensive Plan Map.
The preferred scenario picks specific properties for development that can accommodate the projected housing and employment forecasts from the HNA and EOA. For example, the proposed Comprehensive Plan Map shows much of Lancaster Drive changing to a Mixed Use designation, but the preferred scenario only shows some properties on Lancaster actually developing into mixed use.
We created the preferred scenario, so we could analyze how the Proposed Comprehensive Plan Map performed against the indicators that we have been using during this Our Salem project. (You can read about the indicators on this page.)
Why are we not seeing a greater decrease in GHG emissions related to transportation based on the proposed Comprehensive Plan Map?
We used a transportation model to see how people would travel around the Salem area under the preferred scenario, and in turn, how GHG emissions related to transportation would change. The model was run by the Mid-Willamette Valley Council of Governments (MWVCOG), and it has many different "levers" that can be pulled that impact how it projects people will travel around the Salem area (e.g., mode split).
The lever that we pulled was changes in land use – housing and employment changes based on the preferred scenario described above. Based on conversations with MWVCOG staff, we learned that the model is not very sensitive to land use changes alone, particularly as those changes are incremental to our large existing base of housing and jobs.
There are levers that could have a more significant impact on how people travel around the Salem area and in turn, on our GHG emissions related to transportation. Other levers include:
Operational costs for each mode, including cost of parking and transit fares
Transit coverage and frequency
Time spent in vehicle for motor vehicle trips, including transit (responding to distance and speed, including impacts of congestion and available network)
It's important to note that the model does
not respond to changes in the bicycle or pedestrian network. Bike/walk mode split is primarily based on household characteristics and household travel survey data. An enhanced bike and pedestrian network can influence trip choice, but it is not captured in the model.
The model also does
not assume any changes to our transit network (or frequency of routes). Hopefully, there will be additional transit routes and increased frequency in the future, but for now, the model assumes today's transit service.
Then what can we do in the Our Salem project to reduce GHG emissions more?
There are some changes that we could make at the Comprehensive Plan level (e.g., Comprehensive Plan Map, goals, and policies). Here are some examples:
Redesignate more land along
Cherriots' Core Network to mixed use or R4 (e.g., more properties along Liberty Road S, Center Street NE, Market Street NE)
Add more/bigger neighborhood hubs throughout the Salem area
Add density (middle housing) around neighborhood hubs and mixed-use corridors
Other changes could occur at the zoning code level. We plan to propose changes to the zoning code after the higher-level proposed Comprehensive Plan Map and goals are accepted (if accepted) by the City Council. Code changes that could impact GHG emissions include:
Increasing densities in our mixed-use and/or multifamily zones
Abolishing minimum parking requirements (by use or all uses, by zone or all zones, etc.)
We continue to closely coordinate with the climate action plan work that has just started. We are going to look to that work to provide guidance on specific policies and actions needed to significantly impact GHG emissions. We will be incorporating that work into the Our Salem work, whether that comes in the form of targets, policies, or specific land use recommendations.
What if I have other questions?
You are encouraged to call or email Eunice Kim at
[email protected] or 503-540-2308.