Climate Change Impacts

Our Earth is undergoing significant shifts that affect our climate and communities. While some changes are unavoidable, we can take steps to reduce the impact of others. In addition to working on mitigation efforts to reduce climate impacts, we also focus on adaptation (changing how we live) and resilience (being less vulnerable to climate impacts).

Climate Change Beyond Weather

Climate change is more than just changes in weather; it represents a rapid shift in historic weather patterns, often leading to more frequent and intense weather events. Greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, which capture energy from the sun, play a crucial role in supporting life on our planet. However, the increasing concentration of these gases is impacting global climate and regional weather patterns.

Understanding Greenhouse Gases

Greenhouse gases are atmospheric gases that can capture and radiate back the sun’s energy, typically as heat. These gases are usually measured in CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent). There are several greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and fluorinated gases (synthetic gases from industrial processes). Salem has conducted two Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2016 and 2021), but please note that the methodology changed significantly between the two inventories.

Climate Action Categories

There are three main categories of climate actions:

1. Mitigation: Activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These efforts aim to delay the most severe impacts of climate change and reduce its long-term effects.

2. Adaptation: Activities that create environments suited for a changing climate.

3. Resilience: Activities that enhance the ability to bounce back from climate impacts.

Example of Climate Actions

Planting trees is a great example of a climate action that falls into all three categories. Trees capture carbon dioxide, contributing to mitigation. They also provide shade, reducing heat exposure and adapting to a changing climate. Additionally, trees help prevent flooding by slowing stormwater runoff, enhancing resilience.

Climate Forecasting Overview

According to the 5th National Climate Assessment, the Mid-Willamette Valley Region is expected to undergo significant climate changes. These changes include:

1. Warmer and Drier Climate: The region is likely to experience higher temperatures and reduced rainfall.
2. Heavier Precipitation: While overall rainfall may decrease, heavy rainfall events are expected to increase.
3. Rising Sea Levels: Sea levels are projected to rise, impacting river outlets and potentially causing flooding.

Impact on Salem

Temperature Changes: Despite an increase in average annual temperature, Salem will still experience cold weather and freezing events. However, daily and seasonal variations may become more extreme. By 2050, Salem could see an average of 23 days annually with temperatures exceeding 90°F.

Changes in Precipitation: Decreased annual precipitation may lead to less frequent rain. However, when it does rain, it could be heavier than usual. This shift can lead to droughts and flooding, a phenomenon increasingly associated with climate change.

Increased Flooding Risk: Heavy rainfall events overwhelm the ground's ability to absorb water, leading to increased runoff and a higher risk of flooding. This poses challenges for drinking water and sanitary sewer systems, potentially contaminating drinking water.

Projections and Mitigation Efforts

It's important to note that the severity of these climate impacts depends on the actions we take today to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Current emissions trajectories will affect future climate conditions. Carbon dioxide, with its long atmospheric lifespan, has a significant impact on climate projections up to 2100.

Mitigation efforts, including changes in global behavior, policies, technology, and energy sources, are crucial in shaping future climate risks. Each scenario has associated risks and climate projections, highlighting the importance of taking action today to mitigate the effects of climate change on our region and the planet.

The Climate Action Plan outlines strategies for the City of Salem and the community to achieve emission reduction goals and become more resilient to climate change. These strategies were developed with a focus on three key objectives: reducing emissions, increasing climate resilience, and promoting community equity.

Developing the Plan

The Climate Action Task Force, along with input from the community, identified a final list of 183 strategies across seven categories:

• Transportation and Land Use (TL)
• Energy (EN)
• Economic Development (EC)
• Natural Resources (NR)
• Community (CM)
• Food (FD)
• Materials and Waste (MW)

Assessment of Strategies

Each strategy in the plan is evaluated based on its potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, cost to the city, lead or partnering agency, suggested start timeframe, and one or more co-benefits. Co-benefits are advantages to the community beyond climate action and include:

• Public health
• Environmental quality
• Local economy
• Mobility choice
• Community equity

Accessing the Plan

The complete list of strategies can be found in Appendix 8 of the Climate Action Plan. These strategies are designed to help Salem become a climate-smart city, align with the city's greenhouse gas reduction goals, and create a more sustainable future for all.

Salem's Climate Action Plan outlines strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase climate resilience. To track progress, sector-based inventory reports are conducted every two to five years.  Salem’s first sector-based inventory was completed in 2019 using data from the 2016 survey.  The most recent inventory (2021 Inventory of Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions) was completed in early 2023, used data from 2021.

Background

Greenhouse gas emissions are produced in the City of Salem every day from activities such as driving vehicles, heating homes, or cooking with natural gas.  We also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions indirectly when we purchase goods or food manufactured in other places and transported to Salem.  All these emissions come from human activities that contribute to climate change.

Acknowledging the different ways that we add to this global issue, the City has collected information about greenhouse gas emissions in two different ways.

Sector-based inventory: Emissions produced in Salem from areas such as transportation, and residential, commercial, and industrial building and energy sources, including electricity produced elsewhere but used in the city.

Consumption-based inventory: Emissions produced around the world due to Salem residents’ consumption of goods and services, including emissions associated with the production, transportation, supply chain, use, and disposal of those products.

The sector-based inventory is the traditional method for setting a goal and tracking emissions within a geographical area, such as Salem city limits, and is like the methods many other cities and countries use.  The consumption-based inventory is a less common method and is increasingly being used by local governments to better understand how the choices and behaviors of individuals can impact climate change.

 It is important to note that sector-based and consumption-based inventories are not additive, as there are areas of overlap. Instead, they are both pieces of the greenhouse gas emission picture. Emissions from Salem’s consumption-based inventory cannot be directly added to the sector-based inventory because some consumption occurs within the Salem city limits and therefore these emissions would be double-counted. The Venn Diagram below from the Oregon Global Warming Commission illustrates how the emissions inventories were different between Consumption-Based and Sector-Based.

Data for both methods were gathered from federal, state, and local sources, including utilities.

Sector-Based Inventory

The City's sector-based greenhouse gas inventory reports follow a traditional method used for setting goals and tracking emissions within a geographical area, the Salem city limits. Each has been prepared using the “Global Protocol for Community Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories” (GPC). The GPC is an internationally accepted method for sector-based greenhouse gas accounting that covers a range of emissions sources, including transportation, waste production, and energy use. The reports provide a snapshot of emissions from Salem’s residents, employees, and visitors undertaken within or originating from Salem city limits. They do not include greenhouse gas emissions related to the consumption of goods within Salem’s city limits that originated elsewhere.

2021 Inventory Results

In 2021, the City of Salem’s residents, businesses, employees, and visitors produced over 1.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). This equates to roughly 6.94 metric tons of CO2e per capita. Of the six emissions source categories surveyed, mobile emissions – transportation – made up the majority (41 percent) of the CO2e produced. The second largest source of emissions (32%) was from residential energy use.  This includes emissions produced through electricity generation as well as through fuel combustion (natural gas and other fuels) in our homes. 2021 Inventory of Community Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Consumption-Based Inventory

The consumption-based inventory is a less common method that is increasingly being used by local governments to better understand how the choices and behaviors of individuals can impact climate change. It was prepared using methods similar to the Consumption-based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory for Oregon. The method accounts for greenhouse gas emissions that we indirectly contribute through the purchase of goods or food manufactured in other places and transported to Salem, and from the use and disposal of those items. Specifically, for every good or service used, greenhouse gas emissions may be created from the production, transportation, wholesale or retail sales, consumer use, and eventual disposal of the purchased item or service.

2016 Inventory Results

In 2016, City of Salem’s residents, businesses, and organizations contributed approximately 4.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent through consumption-based emissions. This means that individual choice and behavior overwhelmingly influence global emissions. The purchase and use of vehicles and parts is the largest source (29 percent) of emissions in the consumption-based inventory, while food and beverages are the second largest at 22 percent. Salem 2016 Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Inventory.